Ontario Mortgage Arrears Are Rising. Here's What It Means for Your Renewal

CMHC released its latest Residential Mortgage Industry Report on October 27, 2026, and the headline for Ontario isn't pretty. Mortgage arrears in this province are expected to keep climbing until the middle of 2027, and delinquency rates here are getting close to levels we haven't seen since 2008.

I'll be honest, this lines up with what I'm seeing. More people are coming to me in trouble lately than at any point in recent memory. And the best thing anyone can do when they're in trouble is build a plan of action early.

If you have a mortgage renewal in Ontario coming up in the next year or two, this is worth five minutes of your time. Not because it's time to panic. Because it's time to plan.

What CMHC is actually saying about Ontario mortgage arrears

First, a quick definition. A mortgage is "in arrears" (or delinquent) when the borrower has fallen behind on payments. When you see these stats reported nationally, they generally track mortgages that are 90 days or more past due.

Here's the big picture from the report:

• Nationally, stress is rising but contained. CMHC says delinquency rates are still below the historical peaks of the last 30 years.

• It's uneven by region. Ontario and BC are driving the increase. Alberta is actually improving, helped by a stronger local economy and higher energy prices.

• Private lenders are feeling it most. Mortgage investment entities, often called MICs (mortgage investment corporations), lend to higher-risk borrowers, so they're seeing more arrears. They only held about 1.8% of outstanding mortgage balances in early 2026, which is why the wider system isn't in trouble.

The reality is, "contained nationally" doesn't mean much if you're the one in Ontario staring at a renewal letter.

Why Ontario is getting hit harder

CMHC points to a stack of pressures landing on Ontario homeowners at the same time:

1. The renewal wave. A lot of people locked in when rates were at historic lows and are now renewing at noticeably higher payments.

2. A soft job market. Rising unemployment means some households are renewing with less income than when they first qualified.

3. Falling home prices. Less equity means fewer exits. It's harder to sell or refinance your way out of a tight spot when the cushion has shrunk.

4. Tariff exposure. The trade dispute with the US hits manufacturing, especially the auto sector around Toronto. If you live in Durham Region, you don't need me to explain what auto sector uncertainty feels like at the kitchen table.

CMHC expects Toronto in particular to see above-average delinquency growth through late 2026 and into 2027.

Here's the thing about equity

When I sit down with someone who's struggling, the first question I ask isn't about their rate. It's about their equity, because equity is what creates options.

With healthy equity, you can refinance to consolidate higher-interest debt, restructure your payments, or sell on your own timeline. When prices soften and equity shrinks, those doors get narrower. That's exactly what CMHC is flagging. It's not that people are suddenly bad with money. It's that the usual escape hatches are smaller right now.

So if you have equity today, that's an asset to protect and plan around, not something to take for granted.

How to approach your mortgage renewal in Ontario right now

Let's be honest, most people sign whatever their bank sends them. In a market like this one, that can be an expensive habit. Here's what I'd want my own family to do:

1. Start early. Lenders will typically let you lock in a renewal offer a few months before your maturity date. Waiting until the last few weeks shrinks your options.

2. Don't just sign the renewal. Your current lender's first offer isn't always their best one, and it's not the only one out there. I work with 60+ lenders, and sometimes the honest answer is that your current bank is the right fit. The point is to know, not guess.

3. Look at the term, not just the rate. CMHC noted that borrowers are showing more interest in variable rates and in fixed terms of three to five years, partly because these can lower payments. A shorter term or a variable can make sense, but it also means you'll face rate risk sooner. Structure matters more than chasing the lowest number.

4. Know what's possible before you need it. Depending on the lender and your situation, there may be ways to ease payment pressure at renewal, like restructuring your amortization (the total number of years to pay off the mortgage). These conversations go much better before a payment is missed than after.

If you're self-employed, plan even further ahead

Self-employed Ontarians tend to feel a rocky economy first. A slower year shows up on your tax return, and lenders look backward at your income, not forward.

If you're thinking about moving lenders at renewal, expect to prove your income again. That's where planning with your accountant a year or more ahead pays off. How you draw income, and what shows up on your Notice of Assessment from CRA, can change what you qualify for. (Ahem, we wrote a book about it.)

In trouble? Make a plan early

There's zero shame here. I've truly seen it all, and missing a payment doesn't make you a bad person. It makes you a person dealing with a hard stretch in a hard economy.

The single most important thing is having a plan of action, and having it early. What that plan looks like depends on your situation:

• A reverse mortgage. For homeowners 55 and older, this means no required monthly mortgage payments while you stay in your home. Interest does build on the balance, so it's worth understanding the full picture first.

• A mortgage with payment relief. Many of the lenders I work with offer products designed to ease your monthly payments for a period of time.

• A plan to sell. Selling on your own timeline, before it becomes urgent, almost always goes better than a rushed sale.

• Adding a cosigner. A family member on the mortgage can help you qualify. Just make sure everyone understands that a cosigner is fully responsible for the mortgage too, not just a reference.

The more time you have on your side, the better every one of these options goes. Private lending can be a short-term bridge in some situations, but it costs more and should always come with a plan to get back to a regular lender.

FAQ

Are Ontario mortgage arrears really at 2008 levels?

CMHC says Ontario delinquency rates are nearing levels last seen in 2008. Nationally, arrears are still below the peaks of the past 30 years.

When does CMHC expect Ontario mortgage arrears to improve?

CMHC doesn't expect Ontario delinquencies to ease until around the middle of 2027.

When should I start my mortgage renewal in Ontario?

Earlier than you think. Starting a few months before maturity gives you time to compare options and lock in an offer.

Should I choose a variable or shorter fixed term at renewal?

It depends on your budget, your plans for the home, and how much payment change you can handle. A lower payment today is only a win if the structure still works for you in three to five years.

Can I switch lenders at renewal if I'm self-employed?

Often, yes, but you'll usually need to document your income again. Planning with your accountant ahead of time makes a big difference.

What are my options if I can't afford my mortgage renewal in Ontario?

Depending on your age, equity and income, options can include a reverse mortgage (55+), a mortgage with payment relief, adding a cosigner, or a planned sale. The earlier you start, the more of these stay on the table.

If you have questions about any of this, never be too shy to call.

Source: CMHC sees Ontario mortgage arrears worsening well into 2027, Fergal McAlinden, Canadian Mortgage Professional (CMP), October 27, 2026. Full report: CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report.